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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
How Hormuz chokehold threatens LNG buyers
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
Letter from Asia: The nuanced India-Russia oil picture
The South Asian consumer’s next move could tighten the Middle East oil market overnight
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
OPEC+’s cohesive restraint
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
Arctic LNG 2 adds Arc7 to its shadow fleet
Having found a steady buyer in China for its sanctioned gas, the Russian project is positioned for nearly year-round operations, yet its 11-vessel ‘shadow fleet’ is still insufficient to achieve anywhere near capacity utilisation.
Russia Iran Gazprom Lukoil Opec
Derek Brower
3 July 2017
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Russia is planting flags in the Middle East

Pragmatism and a tolerance for risk are giving Russian energy interests an edge in the region

Sometime in 2024, capacity at Iran's sole nuclear power facility, at Bushehr on the Gulf coast, will double to 2 gigawatts. A couple of years after, another 1GW reactor is due online. If nothing else, Iran is coming good on its civilian nuclear ambitions. Russia, whose state atomic firm Rosatom is building the two new plants, is the enabler. Russia's and Iran's energy plans don't stop at reactors. Lukoil, a private firm but Russia's second-biggest oil producer, and state-controlled Gazprom both have Tehran's approval to bid for upstream projects. Lukoil, which hopes to develop the Abe Timur and Mansuri fields, in western Iran, says the country "is our target area at the moment". Gazprom, whi

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