UAE could be big winner from Aramco U-turn

Saudi Arabia’s decision not to expand capacity target seen as bolstering UAE’s position within OPEC+

The UAE is set to fortify its influence within OPEC+ and state-run Adnoc is expected to clinch a bigger oil market share after Saudi Arabia decided to halt NOC Saudi Aramco’s plan to boost its maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) to 13m b/d by 2027. Before this reversal, the world’s biggest oil exporter was betting on an uptick in global demand that would have justified its additional 1m b/d of capacity by 2027. Saudi Arabia’s change of strategy means that, while it still maintains its position as the ultimate swing producer—bringing on and taking off barrels at short notice to manage the market—the gap between it and the UAE is set to narrow, potentially altering market power dynamics between