Letter on OPEC: OPEC composition will continue to evolve

UAE looks a prime candidate to assert its growing power amid a group unlikely to either gain or lose many members in the foreseeable future

Angola’s decision in December to give up its membership of OPEC is important in that the loss of any country weakens the organisation’s power in global oil markets. For Angola, if it can reverse the long-term decline in its production from the peak of 1.9m b/d seen in 2008, then it will no longer be prevented by output quota restrictions from maximising its market share. However, this would be a long way in the future, if it ever happens. When Angola joined OPEC in 2007 it was regarded as a major producer and exporter in the making, with IOCs—including ExxonMobil and Chevron—talking a big game about how production could easily exceed 2m b/d. A combination of OPEC output restrictions, lack of