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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
How Hormuz chokehold threatens LNG buyers
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
Kazakhstan lays groundwork for transformation
The country is pushing to increase production and expand key projects despite challenges including OPEC+ discipline and the limitations of its export infrastructure
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
Turkey locks in more Azeri gas
New long-term deal is latest addition to country’s rapidly evolving supply portfolio as it eyes role as regional gas hub
Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
The curious case of oil-on-water
The market is facing being drowned in excess crude, but one caveat is that a large chunk is due to buyers reluctant to snap up sanctioned barrels
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Iran Socar
James Gavin
Baku
30 May 2019
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Caspian players plot oil revival

Gas has made most of the recent running, but major producers like Azerbaijan are focusing on boosting crude oil production too

Giant natural gas developments such as Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz have captured the headlines, but the Caspian region's crude oil producers are also ramping up activity as they seek to stem declines in maturing basins. Those plans hit an expected hitch late last year, as two majors, ExxonMobil and Chevron, signalled their intention to pull out of the BP-led Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oilfield development off Azerbaijan, amid indications that costs had increased. The ACG field produced 584,000bl/d on average last year and the prospect of the loss of the two US players on Azerbaijan's main production basin has prompted speculation that expansion ambitions for the field — where output is expected

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