Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
Iran’s internal strife has revealed a hydrocarbons tinderbox. The OPEC member holds the world’s third‑largest proven oil reserves, is one of the biggest gas producers globally and has influence over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key commodity chokepoint. Energy disruption is an unthinkable scenario. Despite decades of sanctions, Iran has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to restore or expand oil production when conditions allow. The important OPEC member has raised output to near pre‑sanctions levels of 3.8m b/d by offering discounted crude and cultivating strong ties with Chinese refiners. Iran pumped roughly 3.3m b/d in December, according to Petroleum Economist, with about 1.5m b/d b
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For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
