Ships and boats in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam
OPEC+ caught between a crisis and a surplus
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
OPEC+ faces a fundamental structural paradox in the second quarter of 2026. It is confronting the largest oil disruption in history, yet it is also threatened by what some claim to be looming oversupply once the present crisis ends. The Hormuz closure in early March 2026, following the start of hostilities between Iran and the US and Israel, turned abstract geopolitical risk into a direct collision with supply management, just as demand was already slowing. This has effectively removed 20–25% of seaborne oil and around 20% of LNG from the market. Yet, even as Brent crude prices surged past $120/bl in March, the underlying reality for OPEC+ remains one of defensive positioning against rising
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