Oil goes into the red zone
The market is primed for another price rally. The industry needs to update its outlook
Another phase in the oil market's cycle—the bottom half of the circle, when prices slumped, reached their nadir, and recovered—is over. The next phase, which will take prices up around the arc to their peak, is beginning. The industry, still gun-shy after years of price weakness, seems no longer to believe in oil's cyclicality. But this will only reinforce it. Forget the conference-circuit jargon of "lower-for-longer" and "low-oil-price environment". Scrap notions that American tight oil acting as a swing producer or the "shale band" that would evermore keep prices within a Goldilocks range of $45 to $65 a barrel. Ignore, too, the forward curve—never a predictor of shocks—where summer 2019's
Also in this section
8 January 2026
Indonesia and Malaysia are at the dawn of breathtaking digital capabilities. Their energy infrastructure must keep up with their ambitions
8 January 2026
The next five years will be critical for the North Sea, and it will be policy not geology that will decide the basin’s future
8 January 2026
The region’s access to versatile feedstock, combined with policy support, is setting it up to meet growing demand both at home and abroad
7 January 2026
No longer can the energy source be considered a sidekick to oil in the Middle East and neither should it step aside for less convincing alternatives
