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Venezuela already making oil comeback
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
OPEC+’s cohesive restraint
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
Venezuela upends global heavy crude market
The ripple effects of US refiners switching to Venezuela grades will be felt from Canada to China and everywhere in between
Venezuela mismanaged its oil, and US shale benefitted
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OPEC’s discipline sets tone for 2026
OPEC+ remains on track as output falls, with only Gabon failing to hit its output targets in December, although Kazakhstan’s compliance was involuntary
Venezuela’s true oil potential
The Latin American producer’s crude prospects rely on a multi-pronged approach where even the relatively easy wins will take considerable time, effort and cost
OPEC presses pause
The group’s oil production declined in November, our latest analysis finds, amid divided sentiment over market balances and geopolitical jitters
The looming risks of a US-Venezuela war
The Caribbean country’s role in the global oil market is significantly diminished, but disruptions caused by outright conflict would still have implications for US Gulf Coast refineries
Letter from London: Oil’s golden triangle
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
The curious case of oil-on-water
The market is facing being drowned in excess crude, but one caveat is that a large chunk is due to buyers reluctant to snap up sanctioned barrels
Opec International Energy Agency Venezuela Shale
Derek Brower
15 March 2018
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Five key takeaways from the big three oil market reports

Demand and supply data still diverge, Venezuela’s increasingly critical to balances, and some macro alarm bells are starting to ring

Opec, the International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Administration simply don't agree on the state of the oil market's balance. Tight oil's recent surge has thrown a spanner in all their works. But some nuggets in the data are worth drawing out—they might be decisive over the coming months. 1. Demand is strong, but the agencies don't agree how strong…The IEA upped its forecast for 2018 a bit, to 1.5m barrels a day, a reflection of strong macro-economic data. Opec increased its forecast slightly to 1.6m b/d. Among these three, the EIA is most bullish, expecting 1.8m b/d of growth. What's startling in the detail, though, is when they think consumption will happen. Both Opec and th

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