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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
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The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
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Venezuelan military personnel in Caracas
Politics US Venezuela
Joseph Murphy
8 December 2025
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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The looming risks of a US-Venezuela war

The Caribbean country’s role in the global oil market is significantly diminished, but disruptions caused by outright conflict would still have implications for US Gulf Coast refineries

Recent months have seen a dramatic escalation in tensions between the US and Venezuela, raising the prospect that Washington could mount a war against the resource-rich nation. US President Donald Trump has accused his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro of fuelling drug trafficking and mass immigration from the Caribbean nation to the US. Yet given Trump’s foreign policy priorities elsewhere in the world, some observers believe his administration’s real goal may be securing access to Venezuela’s extraordinary resource wealth, which includes not only the world’s biggest oil reserves but also substantial deposits of gold, iron ore, bauxite, coltan, diamonds, nickel, phosphates and rare indu

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