Expect the unexpected from Sudan and South Sudan
Stability in South Sudan could raise production much higher than was agreed with Opec
For a small-scale oil producer, South Sudan could do a lot of damage to Opec's efforts to curtail supply. Neither South Sudan nor its northern neighbour Sudan, is a member of the group-although before the former gained independence in 2011 the unified country applied to join. Now they get their chance, in spirit anyway. As part of the deal with Opec, Sudan agreed to a 4,000-barrels-a-day reduction and South Sudan to cut 8,000 b/d. Complicating the situation is the fractious relationship between the neighbours, and South Sudan's impoverished economy. It depends on oil-a source of revenue heavily reduced by factional ethnic violence, which has caused most production to be shut in, reducing exp

Also in this section
19 June 2025
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
19 June 2025
Shifting demand patterns leaves most populous nation primed to become downstream leader as China and the West retreat
19 June 2025
The strategic importance of vast untapped oil and gas reserves and key shipping routes has come in from the cold
18 June 2025
Egypt’s government was already preparing for potential energy shortages this summer, and the loss of Israeli gas supply has made things worse