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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
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The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
How Hormuz chokehold threatens LNG buyers
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
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Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
The curious case of oil-on-water
The market is facing being drowned in excess crude, but one caveat is that a large chunk is due to buyers reluctant to snap up sanctioned barrels
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Letter from the Middle East: Iran-Israel war risks dire straits
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have reverberations that would sound around the world
Iran
Simon Ferrie
29 June 2021
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Iranian storage poses shipping headache

Iran may face crude transportation bottlenecks if and when sanctions are lifted

Iran and Western powers are back negotiating a tentative nuclear agreement, raising the possibility that sanctions on Iranian crude might be lifted once more. But despite Iran having huge stocks of crude already in storage, the country may experience bottlenecks—at least initially—with shipping that glut, given the state of its domestic fleet, concerns among other shipowners and insurance stipulations and requirements. State-run news agency IRNA claims that there are currently 78mn bl of Iranian crude stored aboard “tankers in Asian waters”. Energy market analytics firm Vortexa estimates that 36 tankers—comprising 31 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and five Suezmax vessels—from the state-

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