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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Letter from the UAE: The GCC and Iran – No easy way out
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
China’s secure energy transition
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
Venezuela already making oil comeback
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
Qatar’s Golden Pass dilemma
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Letter from the US: The oil market abyss
The overlooked oil supply issue is that even after the Strait of Hormuz opens, barrels won’t readily return
Do not politicise a geopolitical crisis – Ydreos
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has exposed weakness in the global energy system and reignited debate over security of supply, but it should not be used to justify an accelerated shift away from fossil fuels, says the secretary general of the IGU
A bigger and longer crisis
Attacks on key oil and LNG assets across the Gulf mean a prolonged supply disruption, with damage to Qatar’s export capacity undermining confidence in the global gas system
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at a meeting with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
Politics Iran US Venezuela
Neil Atkinson
2 October 2024
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US election means little to Tehran and Caracas

Geopolitical strife embroiling Iran and political corruption in Venezuela suggest little near-term change to oil production from either of the sanctioned states

The US will choose between two starkly different candidates in November’s election, but for the oil industries of Iran and Venezuela—the two OPEC members against which Washington has imposed economic sanctions—the result is likely a foregone conclusion. Washington’s relationship with Iran has been turbulent since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and poor with Venezuela since Hugo Chavez was elected in 1999 and Nicolas Maduro came to power in 2013. The US is not the only government to have sanctions in place against Iran. On many occasions in the past 30 years, the EU, the UN and individual countries (e.g. Canada, Australia, India, Switzerland, Japan and South Korea) have imposed various measu

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