Trump's Iran move and oil
The market should not ignore the geopolitical risks if the nuclear deal now unravels
How bullish is Donald Trump's plan to decertify the Iran nuclear deal? It might pass without much impact. But no one in the oil market should discount the alternative scenario—that new US sanctions complicate Iranian oil exports, worsen the Middle East's geopolitics, and increase the risk of more regional conflict. Although the procedure of decertification, by way of a statement to Congress, is straightforward, the politics is less so and the consequences of Trump's decision, like the president himself, are unpredictable. Rolling certification every 90 days that Iran is complying with the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a condition Congress put on Barack Obama, an
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