The North Sea is more than a source of energy. It is a symbol of how a mature basin can adapt to new realities and a test of whether an advanced economy can manage renewal and transition at the same time.
For more than 50 years it has powered the UK and underpinned industrial growth. The question now is what future we build on that foundation and whether policy choices will enable the North Sea to remain a cornerstone of energy security and a platform for transition.
The context is clear. Oil and gas still meet around three-quarters of the UK’s energy demand. Even by 2030, hydrocarbons are expected to provide half. To 2050, the UK will consume 13–15b boe, yet on current trends the North Sea will supply less than a third of that need. Imports already cover more than 40% of total energy, a record level that carries risks for security, affordability and emissions.
The North Sea’s future cannot be reduced to a single statistic or a single community. Eleven coastal terminals land the UK’s oil and gas, forming the backbone of an industrial ecosystem that extends from Aberdeen to Grangemouth, from Humberside to Teesside, from Tyneside to East Anglia and the Northwest.
Recent analysis by energy market research company Westwood Global Energy Group shows throughput at these hubs has fallen nearly 40% since 2020 and could halve again by 2030. That fall threatens a ripple effect across industries that rely on secure supplies of fuels, chemicals and feedstocks. What happens offshore matters deeply onshore, in the products people use every day and in the jobs that sustain local economies.
The North Sea is often seen only through the lens of hydrocarbons. Yet the offshore sector has shown what can be achieved through innovation and commitment to change. Greenhouse gas emissions from production have fallen by 34% since 2018, beating official targets set for 2027 three years early. Methane emissions are down 57%, already beyond the 2030 goal.
Today, the UK produces 0.7% of the world’s oil and gas but accounts for only 0.5% of global production emissions. North Sea gas has a far lower carbon footprint than imported LNG, which can be up to four times more carbon intensive. Producing responsibly at home is the better choice for the environment as well as for energy security.
The resource potential is still significant. Independent analysis suggests up to 7.5b bl remain recoverable from UK waters, more than 3b bl above current estimates. Developing these resources could meet half the UK’s future needs, support more than 200,000 jobs and add £165b ($216.51b) in economic value.
Realising that potential depends on a predictable, competitive and stable investment environment. In a global market, capital is mobile. It flows towards regimes where long-term signals are clear. Norway continues licensing responsibly alongside renewables and CCS, ensuring investor confidence. The Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East are attracting billions. The UK must offer the same clarity if it is to compete.
Low-carbon economy
The future of the North Sea will not be defined by hydrocarbons alone. It is already becoming a platform for the low-carbon economy. Offshore engineers are applying their skills across oil platforms, floating windfarms and subsea carbon storage projects. Decommissioned pipelines are being reimagined as CO₂ transport networks. Clusters such as Acorn in Scotland, Viking in Humberside and the East Coast Cluster in Teesside all depend on North Sea infrastructure and expertise. Hydrocarbons and renewables are not in conflict. They are part of one integrated system.
The scale of potential investment is striking. Across oil, gas, wind, hydrogen and carbon capture, the UK offshore sector could attract more than £200b by 2035, rising to £400b by 2040. These figures represent more than balance sheets.
They mean welders in the Northeast, apprentices in the Highlands, technicians in Humberside and innovators in every region. They mean supply chains that can deliver energy security while anchoring new industries in British communities.
The North Sea is a mature basin, but maturity brings advantages. Decades of investment mean world-class infrastructure, skills and supply chains that can now be repurposed for low-carbon energy as well as hydrocarbons. The next five years will be decisive in determining whether the UK makes the most of what it has or accelerates its reliance on imports.
Other countries are watching closely. Mature basins from North America to Asia face the same dilemma of how to balance hydrocarbons with investment in the energy systems of the future.
The North Sea can be a blueprint, showing that responsible domestic production, emissions reduction and new energy development can go hand in hand. Or it can become a warning of what happens when predictability is lost and opportunities are missed.
For the UK, the choice is stark. A future shaped by greater dependence on imports, with higher emissions and weaker industry. Or a pragmatic path that secures energy, protects jobs and builds the foundations for net zero.
The North Sea’s next chapter is about more than hydrocarbons. It is about the shape of energy to come—resilient, integrated and homegrown. Policy, not geology, will decide whether the basin remains a cornerstone of the UK’s energy system and a model for how the world manages transition.
David Whitehouse is chief executive of Offshore Energies UK. To read Outlook 2026 in full, click here.
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