CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA
Forecasts of oil sands’ demise greatly exaggerated
Canadian regulator the CER’s Global Net-Zero scenario paints a gloomy picture for the oil sands, but the analysis may be fundamentally flawed
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released its annual round of long-term energy scenarios in mid-June, and for the first time provided an outlook for Canadian crude oil production through 2050 under its Global Net-Zero Scenario—one of three scenarios in the Canada’s Energy Future 2023 report and the worst case for the country’s oil industry. Under this scenario, the CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA in its Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario in its World Energy Outlook 2022 report—$35/bl in 2030 and $24/bl in 2050 based on 2021 inflation-adjusted dollars—and for Canadian crude oil production to drop by the same 76% as global crude oil production over the 2021–50
Also in this section
21 April 2026
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
21 April 2026
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
21 April 2026
As the global energy system undergoes a fundamental realignment, Algihaz Holdings has established itself as a critical player bridging conventional energy markets and the next generation of renewable infrastructure.
21 April 2026
The 25th WPC Energy Congress is taking place from 11-15 October 2026 at the Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.
