Iran and Libya supply fortunes highlight market risks
The impact from Libya’s lost barrels versus the threats to Iranian supply highlight the type of buffer in the oil market and the demand implications
An Israeli attack on Iranian export facilities could mean the loss of around 1.5m bl of medium and heavy sour crude currently going mainly to China. These barrels will be hard to replace compared with Libyan oil, as global light sweet supplies remain abundant. OPEC+ could make up the loss but is unlikely to do so, as the group is interested in supporting prices. China’s inability to easily replace discounted Iranian barrels could also jeopardise its economic recovery. The oil market has demonstrated resilience this year, despite several supply disruptions. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), an average of 1.1m b/d of production was offline in the first eight months
Also in this section
18 November 2025
The oil powerhouse will not just join the top five crude exporters in the coming years, it may be a model for how petrostates balance growth, policy and sustainability
18 November 2025
In the second of this two-part series, we look at Shell’s refocusing on returns and the speculation surrounding a potential takeover of BP
18 November 2025
For the first time in its illustrious history, the WPC Energy Congress will convene in Saudi Arabia, bringing together leaders, innovators, and changemakers to chart “Pathways to an Energy Future for All.”
18 November 2025
Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Occidental, has been selected as the 2026 recipient of the Dewhurst Award, the highest honour bestowed by WPC Energy. The Dewhurst Award celebrates exceptional leadership, groundbreaking innovation and a lifetime of significant achievements in sup-port of the development and advancement of the energy industry.
