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OPEC+ caught between a crisis and a surplus
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Mideast plans big spending on gas to meet demand
The region’s gas producers are investing heavily in the fuel in order to satisfy burgeoning demand resulting from economic growth and a shift to cleaner fuels
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Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
OPEC+’s 11m b/d March production collapse
Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
The demand destruction timebomb
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Letter from the US: The oil market abyss
The overlooked oil supply issue is that even after the Strait of Hormuz opens, barrels won’t readily return
Middle East chaos creates new oil and gas trends
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The key arteries of the energy world
The Strait of Hormuz crisis highlights how key waterways can become global chokepoints
Both have much to lose if energy infrastructure is damaged
Saudi Arabia Iran Markets
Victor Kotsev
24 March 2023
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Saudi-Iran deal first step to boosting regional oil security prospects

But there is less optimism on additional Iranian exports, and many near-term risks remain

The Chinese-brokered deal to restore relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran may not necessarily prevent regional conflict or unlock additional Iran crude, but analysts believe it improves the long-term security of Saudi oil installations. The move will certainly be remembered as Beijing’s first big breakthrough on the Middle Eastern diplomatic scene. But is also an attempt to safeguard its oil purchases, given that it buys a lot of crude from both Saudi Arabia and Iran—even if much of the volume from the latter is not included in official statistics due to sanctions relating to Tehran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme. As a result, much of Iran’s crude trade takes place on the grey market

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OPEC+ caught between a crisis and a surplus
21 April 2026
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
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21 April 2026
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
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