The oil market faces uncertainty around the extent of lost supply from Russia
The oil market’s three key questions
The extent of lost Russian supply, what can step in and what happens to demand
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a Western response that has surprised President Putin in its vehemence, and a combination of bans on importing Russian barrels and buyers stepping away from Urals due to political and/or societal pressure has roiled the oil market. Since Russia’s late-February aggression, the benchmark Ice Brent contract has jumped from c.$95/bl to highs of almost $130/bl, gyrated back to sub-$100/bl, gone back up to $120/bl+ and is now trading around $110/bl. The obvious driver of this volatility is uncertainty, with a myriad of moving parts that are nigh-on impossible to predict either in quantity or duration. Late-March peace talks between Russia and Ukraine proved more posit
Also in this section
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
1 April 2026
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
31 March 2026
Disappointing results in its bidding round are a reality check for Libya, and global exploration generally
