The oil market faces uncertainty around the extent of lost supply from Russia
The oil market’s three key questions
The extent of lost Russian supply, what can step in and what happens to demand
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a Western response that has surprised President Putin in its vehemence, and a combination of bans on importing Russian barrels and buyers stepping away from Urals due to political and/or societal pressure has roiled the oil market. Since Russia’s late-February aggression, the benchmark Ice Brent contract has jumped from c.$95/bl to highs of almost $130/bl, gyrated back to sub-$100/bl, gone back up to $120/bl+ and is now trading around $110/bl. The obvious driver of this volatility is uncertainty, with a myriad of moving parts that are nigh-on impossible to predict either in quantity or duration. Late-March peace talks between Russia and Ukraine proved more posit
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