The oil market’s three key questions

The extent of lost Russian supply, what can step in and what happens to demand

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a Western response that has surprised President Putin in its vehemence, and a combination of bans on importing Russian barrels and buyers stepping away from Urals due to political and/or societal pressure has roiled the oil market. Since Russia’s late-February aggression, the benchmark Ice Brent contract has jumped from c.$95/bl to highs of almost $130/bl, gyrated back to sub-$100/bl, gone back up to $120/bl+ and is now trading around $110/bl. The obvious driver of this volatility is uncertainty, with a myriad of moving parts that are nigh-on impossible to predict either in quantity or duration. Late-March peace talks between Russia and Ukraine proved more posit