The oil market faces uncertainty around the extent of lost supply from Russia
The oil market’s three key questions
The extent of lost Russian supply, what can step in and what happens to demand
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a Western response that has surprised President Putin in its vehemence, and a combination of bans on importing Russian barrels and buyers stepping away from Urals due to political and/or societal pressure has roiled the oil market. Since Russia’s late-February aggression, the benchmark Ice Brent contract has jumped from c.$95/bl to highs of almost $130/bl, gyrated back to sub-$100/bl, gone back up to $120/bl+ and is now trading around $110/bl. The obvious driver of this volatility is uncertainty, with a myriad of moving parts that are nigh-on impossible to predict either in quantity or duration. Late-March peace talks between Russia and Ukraine proved more posit
Also in this section
29 January 2026
Caught between LNG risks from across the Atlantic and the wounds from Russian gas dependence, Europe needs more than a simple diversification strategy
28 January 2026
The alliance looks to bolster market management credibility by bringing greater clarity and unity to output cuts and producer capacity later in 2026
23 January 2026
A strategic pivot away from Russian crude in recent weeks tees up the possibility of improved US-India trade relations
23 January 2026
The signing of a deal with a TotalEnergies-led consortium to explore for gas in a block adjoining Israel’s maritime area may breathe new life into the country’s gas ambitions
