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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Letter from the UAE: The GCC and Iran – No easy way out
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
China’s secure energy transition
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
Qatar’s Golden Pass dilemma
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Letter from the US: The oil market abyss
The overlooked oil supply issue is that even after the Strait of Hormuz opens, barrels won’t readily return
Do not politicise a geopolitical crisis – Ydreos
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has exposed weakness in the global energy system and reignited debate over security of supply, but it should not be used to justify an accelerated shift away from fossil fuels, says the secretary general of the IGU
A bigger and longer crisis
Attacks on key oil and LNG assets across the Gulf mean a prolonged supply disruption, with damage to Qatar’s export capacity undermining confidence in the global gas system
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Hormuz crisis delivers tailwinds for US LNG
Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
President Trump at the first cabinet meeting of his second term
Opinion
US Politics
Philip K. Verleger
Denver
26 March 2025
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Letter from the US: Trumpism threatens oil producers’ survival

Well-functioning democracies are required for healthier economies and a thriving oil industry

Few oil-exporting nations can be labelled democracies. Oil- and mineral-exporting nations work best as autocracies. On the other hand, research by the Nobel-prize-winning economist and MIT professor Daron Acemoglu and three co-authors has showed that long-run per-capita GDP increases by almost 20% when a nation transitions from autocracy to democracy, while declining by a similar amount when an autocrat attains control. The Trump administration’s takeover of the US government has put the country on the path to autocracy. The democratic institutions under which presidents, members of the House of Representees and the Senate—along with the judiciary—have operated for more than 200 years are be

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