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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
How Hormuz chokehold threatens LNG buyers
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
Letter from Asia: The nuanced India-Russia oil picture
The South Asian consumer’s next move could tighten the Middle East oil market overnight
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
Arctic LNG 2 adds Arc7 to its shadow fleet
Having found a steady buyer in China for its sanctioned gas, the Russian project is positioned for nearly year-round operations, yet its 11-vessel ‘shadow fleet’ is still insufficient to achieve anywhere near capacity utilisation.
Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
A number of tankers are engaging in ship-to-ship transfers of Russian crude in the Atlantic
Russia Iran Oil markets Sanctions
Simon Ferrie
13 September 2022
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Russian barrels continue to impact Iranian trade

The sanctioned countries are competing in a limited illicit market

Iranian crude and condensate exports have slowed this year amid stiff competition from sanctioned Russian barrels for both Chinese market share and access to those tankers willing to transport the illicit cargoes. Iran exported an average of 880,000bl/d in the second quarter, down from 980,000bl/d in the first three months of the year, according to data from cargo-tracking analytics firm Vortexa. Exports have declined in recent months, but logged a partial rebound in August to back up to more than 800,000bl/d. China remains the largest single buyer of Iranian crude, but the Middle Eastern country has seen its market share eroded by Russia. China imported an average of 500,000bl/d of crude fr

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