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OPEC+ caught between a crisis and a surplus
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
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Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
Letter from the UAE: The GCC and Iran – No easy way out
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
China’s secure energy transition
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Lessons from the crisis
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Do not politicise a geopolitical crisis – Ydreos
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Iran's Acting President Mohammad Mokhber during a cabinet meeting in Tehran
Iran Politics Markets
James Gavin
24 May 2024
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Washington belatedly targets Iran’s crude oil supply networks

Tehran is in a renewed political crisis, but its ability to find buyers for its crude exports hands it a lifeline

The death of President Ebrahim Raisi on 19 May portends a period of domestic political turmoil for Iran, just as US pressure on its crucial economic lifeline—crude oil exports to China—intensifies in the wake of the mid-April missile assault on Israel. Raisi’s helicopter crash may have been the result of technical issues reflecting the impact of sanctions on Iran’s air fleet, restricting the supply of spare parts. The one piece of good news that Iranian officials may clutch to is that the sanctions regime as applied to the country’s crude oil exports has been much less effective. “About 90–95% of Iran’s crude exports are going to China,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior oil analyst at analyt

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21 April 2026
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
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21 April 2026
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
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