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Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
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The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
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Having found a steady buyer in China for its sanctioned gas, the Russian project is positioned for nearly year-round operations, yet its 11-vessel ‘shadow fleet’ is still insufficient to achieve anywhere near capacity utilisation.
Letter from Saudi Arabia: Big oil meets big shovel
As Saudi Arabia pushes mining as a new pillar of its economy, Saudi Aramco is positioning itself at the intersection of hydrocarbons, minerals and industrial policy
Venezuela upends global heavy crude market
The ripple effects of US refiners switching to Venezuela grades will be felt from Canada to China and everywhere in between
Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
Letter from the US: The curse of strong energy exports
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
Venezuela mismanaged its oil, and US shale benefitted
Chavez’s socialist reforms boosted state control but pushed knowledge and capital out of the sector, opening the way for the US shale revolution
OPEC’s discipline sets tone for 2026
OPEC+ remains on track as output falls, with only Gabon failing to hit its output targets in December, although Kazakhstan’s compliance was involuntary
Venezuela’s true oil potential
The Latin American producer’s crude prospects rely on a multi-pronged approach where even the relatively easy wins will take considerable time, effort and cost
Venezuela Opec US Russia Saudi Arabia Iran
Derek Brower
5 April 2018
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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The price is right

With the help of thirsty consumers and collapsing Venezuelan output, the market seems at last to have found its range

Venezuela's oil output falls steadily. The nuclear deal with Iran appears doomed. Analysts and diplomats fret that another conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is looming. Opec shows no sign of ending its cuts. Demand is strong. Non-Opec output is soaring. A global trade war seems imminent. These are grounds for significant oil-price volatility. Yet the most telling feature of the market is its relative calm. Since Opec and its partners started cutting in January 2017, the widest intra-month price difference has been $7.17 a barrel. In the year before, it was more than $10. In 2016, the differential average was $6.75/b; in 2015, $7.72; and in 2014, $7.17. Since the cuts, the average has bee

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