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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Letter from the UAE: The GCC and Iran – No easy way out
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
China’s secure energy transition
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
Do not politicise a geopolitical crisis – Ydreos
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has exposed weakness in the global energy system and reignited debate over security of supply, but it should not be used to justify an accelerated shift away from fossil fuels, says the secretary general of the IGU
A bigger and longer crisis
Attacks on key oil and LNG assets across the Gulf mean a prolonged supply disruption, with damage to Qatar’s export capacity undermining confidence in the global gas system
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Letter from Dubai: A safe haven under fire
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
Trump’s bid to reshape the global energy order
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
Energy dominance as diplomatic leverage
Energy sanctions are becoming an increasingly prominent tool of US foreign policy, with the country’s growth in oil and gas production allowing it to impose pressure on rivals without jeopardising its own energy security or that of its allies, argues Matthew McManus, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics
Explainer: Fujairah on high alert
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
PE 90th anniversary
Politics
Neil Atkinson
9 September 2024
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OPEC and the post-war evolution of the oil industry, part 2: The emergence of the IEA

We pick up the story of the history of oil with the response of consumer countries to the 1973 embargo, with the creation of the IEA proving the adage that every action has a reaction

OPEC’s revenues soared from $23b in 1972 to $140b by 1977, and this came at a big price for consumers. Taking a longer view, GDP growth in the OECD countries fell from an average of 5% in the decade to 1973 to 3% in the decade that followed. In the ten years before the Yom Kippur War, global inflation averaged 3.6% a year, while in the ten years afterwards, it averaged 11.6%.   The impact on the global economy, including developed countries and developing countries less able to deal with the shock, was profound as huge wealth transfers flowed to the oil producers, forever changing their economies and long-term expectations about the ‘fair’ level of oil prices.  The Seven Sisters, which

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The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
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