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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Mideast plans big spending on gas to meet demand
The region’s gas producers are investing heavily in the fuel in order to satisfy burgeoning demand resulting from economic growth and a shift to cleaner fuels
Turkey’s gas bridge under threat
The country plays a vital role in connecting Asia to Europe, but the expiration of Russian contracts and the ramifications of the war in Iran are placing it under pressure
Letter from the UAE: The GCC and Iran – No easy way out
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
China’s secure energy transition
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
Do not politicise a geopolitical crisis – Ydreos
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has exposed weakness in the global energy system and reignited debate over security of supply, but it should not be used to justify an accelerated shift away from fossil fuels, says the secretary general of the IGU
A bigger and longer crisis
Attacks on key oil and LNG assets across the Gulf mean a prolonged supply disruption, with damage to Qatar’s export capacity undermining confidence in the global gas system
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
Letter from Dubai: A safe haven under fire
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
The Middle East also holds a significant role in global gas production
Iran Saudi Arabia Turkey Politics
Danial Rahmat
9 August 2023
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Shifting sands alter balance of power in Middle East

The region’s political situation and internal relationships are changing amid the growing influence of Russia and China

The Middle East can be divided into three categories of regional alliances: allies of Iran, allies of Saudi Arabia, and allies of Turkey. The allies of Iran consist of the Assad regime in Syria, Iraq’s federal government, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah and the Amal Movement in Lebanon. All of these groups have been embroiled in internal crises, including territorial disintegration and political upheavals, as a result of regional competition. The allies of Saudi Arabia include the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—excluding Qatar—as well as Egypt, Sudan and, to some extent, Jordan. Saudi Arabia also wields significant influence over Sun

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