Letter from Caracas: Venezuela and Russia’s fragile oil ties at risk

Moscow’s influence over Caracas uncertain amid upcoming elections and a shift in approach from Washington

Russia has long regarded Venezuela as a geopolitical chess piece, especially in terms of the energy sector, but the recent change in approach from Washington may lead to a breaking point in Moscow’s relationship with Caracas. The Biden administration’s decision to grant Chevron a licence to restart its frozen production in Venezuela was a game-changing move. The ties between Washington and Caracas are clearly in very different shape now to how they were during the government of Hugo Chavez, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine and the changing nature of global oil markets, within which Venezuela could again play an important role as a supplier to the US. Much depends on the politi