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Outlook 2026: US onshore holds steady at sluggish rate as shale stagnates
As contradictory as it might seem, US oil output has continued to grow over the last several years, even as drilling in the shale plays has maintained a slow decline. This improbable dichotomy is a testimony to the industry’s technological prowess
Canada’s Asian pivot faces hurdles
The federal government is working with Alberta to improve the country’s access to Asian markets and reduce dependence on the US, but there are challenges to their plans
The looming risks of a US-Venezuela war
The Caribbean country’s role in the global oil market is significantly diminished, but disruptions caused by outright conflict would still have implications for US Gulf Coast refineries
Letter from Saudi Arabia: US-Saudi energy ties enter a new phase
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
Letter from London: Oil’s golden triangle
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
Alberta’s energy hub sees silver lining
US tariffs bolster Alberta’s Industrial Heartland exports to Asia
The duality of US shale
A sector beset by pessimism and pain amid price weakness contrasts with data signalling production strength and resilience
Gas should fare better than oil under Canada’s new regime
The new federal government appears far more supportive of oil and gas than former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s climate-focused administration, but the prospects look better for the latter hydrocarbon
Fear and loathing in US LNG buildout
Overall gas optimism is blighted by concerns over lingering regulatory and infrastructure hurdles that could hamper expansion of US LNG exports, weaken security and stifle AI ambitions
Indigenous opposition may slow Canadian fast-track
Federal and provincial governments have passed legislation to speed the development of hand-picked projects, but failure to win Indigenous support may stymie their plans
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney
Opinion
US Canada
Vincent Lauerman
Calgary
1 December 2020
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Letter from Canada: Kenney’s bad Keystone XL bet

Alberta’s premier went all in on the controversial pipeline but may lose his shirt

Alberta premier Jason Kenney made a big gamble on TC Energy’s controversial Keystone XL (KXL) crude pipeline at the end of March. The victory of Joe Biden in November’s US election means it is unlikely to pay off. Kenney backstopped the pipeline project with C$7.5bn ($5.75bn) of public money—consisting of a C$1.5bn equity stake in 2020 and a C$6bn loan guarantee in 2021—to ensure a positive FID and a quick start to construction before the US presidential vote. Besides creating jobs and economic activity in his struggling province, Kenney was hoping to create ‘facts on the ground’ to discourage the next US administration from kyboshing the project yet again. It should have come as no big surp

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Abdullah Aljarboua serves as a senior fellow in the energy macro & microeconomics programme at KAPSARC. His work spans macroeconomics, energy-economic modelling, large-scale optimisation and advanced computational techniques for modelling complex energy policy dynamics. Here he speaks with Petroleum Economist about the Gulf region’s role in shaping the energy landscape over the coming decades

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