21 March 2018
The volatile 10
As the oil market regains balance, risk will affect the price. Here's where to watch
US Unpredictable leader? Global risk now emanates directly from the Oval Office and—on everything from North Korea to Nafta—Donald Trump's Twitter account. For the oil market, the president is broadly bullish. US tax cuts may feed into higher demand; Trump's dislike of the Iran deal and stance on Venezuela may bring sanctions; and an implicit soft-dollar policy could support oil prices. His "American first" programme has not caused the drop in global trade some feared. The main bearish risk from the US comes from the Fed's planned interest-rate rises this year and the impact on the global economy. If Democrats win bigly in November's midterm elections, Trump will be stymied and the Russia in
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