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Outlook 2026: South America’s oil growth story masks hidden risks
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The looming risks of a US-Venezuela war
The Caribbean country’s role in the global oil market is significantly diminished, but disruptions caused by outright conflict would still have implications for US Gulf Coast refineries
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The oil powerhouse will not just join the top five crude exporters in the coming years, it may be a model for how petrostates balance growth, policy and sustainability
Mexico must overhaul its NOC
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Mexico’s upstream Pemex gamble
The government refuses to expand E&P access despite the NOC’s high debt pile, falling crude output and growing gas import dependence
Brazil looks to solve its energy security travails
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Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Pemex scrambles to plug the gap
The NOC’s dire financial situation and maturing fields have left the authorities with little choice but to reduce crude expectations
Brazil rides a production wave
Latin America’s largest economy expects big uptick in crude this year with the imminent arrival of several FPSOs
Brazil Mexico Venezuela
Justin Jacobs
11 May 2018
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Latin America’s oil production struggles to recover

Venezuela and Mexico are still coping with the fallout from the downturn while Brazil is set to start adding barrels again

No region was hit quite as hard by the downturn as Latin America. Oil production across the region has fallen 20%, from 9.6m barrels a day as the crisis took hold in 2015, to around 8m b/d. A region-wide recovery to pre-crash output levels could still be years away—if it ever comes. Venezuela, of course, has led the decline. The oil-dependent country's economic and political crisis is closely entwined with the industry, fuelling its collapse—with the resulting fall in oil production in turn making the crisis even worse. Output, according to the International Energy Agency, has fallen 35% just since 2015, around 800,000 barrels a day to 1.6m b/d. The litany of problems facing Venezuela's oil

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