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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Mideast plans big spending on gas to meet demand
The region’s gas producers are investing heavily in the fuel in order to satisfy burgeoning demand resulting from economic growth and a shift to cleaner fuels
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
How Hormuz chokehold threatens LNG buyers
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
Letter from the Middle East: Aramco provides big global gas reveal
The Saudi energy leader’s announcement of first production at Jafurah and the launch of operations at the Tanajib Gas Plant marks a turning point not just for the company, but for the world’s energy landscape
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
Letter from Saudi Arabia: Big oil meets big shovel
As Saudi Arabia pushes mining as a new pillar of its economy, Saudi Aramco is positioning itself at the intersection of hydrocarbons, minerals and industrial policy
Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
Iran Saudi Arabia Bahrain Oman
Gerald Butt
16 November 2018
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Gulf economy planners face 2019 challenges

Uncertainty over oil prices is creating problems for GCC states as they prepare budgets for the year ahead

Not so long ago, Gulf state economists were making projections for 2019 on the basis of oil remaining in the region of $80-90 a barrel. But developments over the past weeks have forced them to get their calculators out again, as prices slipped to less than $70 a barrel. Fears about global oil shortages eased, as the US granted waivers to eight states to allow them to continue buying oil from sanctioned Iran, and President Trump urged Opec states to produce more. Another factor is the rise of US oil production to 11.6m barrels a day. The expected global tight supply has not materialised. The dilemma that economic planners in the Gulf states face is that the market looks like remaining uncerta

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