Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Pemex CEO Victor Rodriguez at an event for the 87th anniversary of the NOC’s founding
Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Mexico’s upstream outlook is not looking bright. Halfway into 2025, and against a backdrop of widening political violence, crude projections have already taken a tumble as the authorities contend with declining production, high debt and operational problems. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum originally set a 2025 domestic target of 1.8m b/d, but this was soon downgraded to 1.762m b/d. By April, output had slumped to 1.369m b/d. The most recent report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission from state oil and gas firm Pemex projects 1.58m b/d for the year. “The original projection of 1.8m bl/d for 2025 was always seen as optimistic, especially since the NOC last reached that level back
Also in this section
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
1 April 2026
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
31 March 2026
Disappointing results in its bidding round are a reality check for Libya, and global exploration generally
