US shale patch faces worsening headwinds
Mounting constraints on US light-tight oil only compound the hazardous task of predicting growth
Major oil forecasting organisations, such as the IEA, EIA and Opec, have severely underestimated growth in US light-tight oil (LTO)—and shale-related natural gas liquids (NGLs)—production for much of the last decade. But over recent years, the Big 3 oil forecasters, especially the IEA, have significantly reversed this trend, ramping up their medium-term projections for US LTO growth. Are they about to finally get it right, or have they jumped on the bandwagon just in time for it to lose a wheel? Growth in US LTO production has dropped like a stone since peaking in August 2018. Increasingly production out of the prolific Permian has been pivotal to US output, in sharp contrast to the Eagle F
Also in this section
2 April 2025
The often-hidden yet powerful hand maintains supply chain linkages and global flows amid disruptions
2 April 2025
At some point it is likely that $70/bl will be quietly accepted as the producer-consumer sweet spot for a US administration having to balance both sides of the ledger
1 April 2025
There is method to the US president’s apparent madness, and those seeking to understand need look no further than their local bookshop
1 April 2025
Strong economic growth targets are encouraging for the country’s energy demand growth, even if meeting those goals might be a tall order
