Opec cuts, shale mends

Is American tight oil going to ruin the price recovery?

When Opec's ministers emerged, deal in hand, from their November meeting in Vienna you could almost hear the champagne being uncorked half a world away in Texas. If it brings a lasting revival in prices, the deal will underpin new growth in US shale supply after two punishing years of austerity. Oil in the $50s will unleash a wave of new tight oil spending. A rising oil price won't buoy all shale producers equally. The recovery in 2017 will look a lot like it did in the second half of 2016. That is, the Permian in west Texas will suck up most investment, yielding more oil. The Eagle Ford and Bakken will be slower to recover, needing prices north of $60 a barrel to grow. Basins outside the Pe