The curious case of oil-on-water
The market is facing being drowned in excess crude, but one caveat is that a large chunk is due to buyers reluctant to snap up sanctioned barrels
Oil prices have defied the IEA’s view of oversupply for several months, even as OPEC has ramped up production. However, recent reports of ballooning supply must be ringing alarm bells in the capitals of key oil producers. Although reports of more than 1b bl of oil floating on water are true, fears of geopolitical turmoil are keeping key benchmarks at levels of around $60/bl. OPEC+ made the right decision to refrain from boosting output, starting in January 2026, but the group might have to do more if demand does not pick up soon, given the magnitude of oil afloat. Key tanker-tracking agencies and shipping research analysts estimate that up to 1.25b bl of crude oil and condensates remain at s
Also in this section
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
1 December 2025
The North African producer’s first bidding round in almost two decades is an important milestone but the recent extension suggests a degree of trepidation
