OPEC and IEA divergence highlights assumption blackspots
Supply glut or supply deficit are both plausible outlooks, with tariffs and sanctions among the key risks that could swing the pendulum
OPEC and the IEA continue to offer divergent perspectives on oil supply and demand. For 2024, the demand differences rose to as much as 1.24m b/d in June and July, but the gap narrowed to 0.6m b/d at the start of the year. For 2025, the IEA sees a year-on-year demand increase of 1.05m b/d, but OPEC remains optimistic despite the possibility of US tariffs against several countries and similar reciprocal steps by other nations. The oil alliance estimate for a consumption increase in 2025 is 1.45m b/d. OPEC projects Chinese demand growth at 310,000b/d in 2025, but the IEA expects year-on-year demand growth in Asia’s largest consumer at 220,000b/d. Indian consumption will rise by 240,000b/d this
Also in this section
19 March 2026
The regional crisis highlights the undervalued role of fixed pipelines in the age of tanker flexibility
18 March 2026
Rising LNG exports and AI-driven power demand have raised concerns that US gas prices could climb sharply, but analysts say abundant shale supply and continued productivity gains should keep Henry Hub within a range that preserves the competitiveness of US LNG
18 March 2026
Risks of shortages in oil products may cause world leaders to panic and make mistakes instead of letting the market do what it does best
17 March 2026
The crisis in the Middle East has put LNG’s ability to offer security and flexibility under uncomfortable scrutiny
