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OPEC presses pause
The group’s oil production declined in November, our latest analysis finds, amid divided sentiment over market balances and geopolitical jitters
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The Caribbean country’s role in the global oil market is significantly diminished, but disruptions caused by outright conflict would still have implications for US Gulf Coast refineries
Learning from oil’s supercycle miss
Mistaken assumptions around an oil bull run that never happened are a warning over the talk of a supply glut
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Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
Letter from London: Oil’s golden triangle
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The complex crude glut picture
The swelling crude supply story involves the key plot twists of reluctant buyers, limited oil stocks and refiners playing the long game
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US Markets
Neil Atkinson
31 January 2025
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Oil producers under pressure in 2025

Trump may get his wish for cheaper oil, but prices will more likely be driven by fundamentals than policies

Nobody could accuse President Trump of being dull. His campaign slogan “drill, baby, drill” is being repeated even after the January inauguration. Regulations are being relaxed to allow oil and gas companies to invest in expanding production. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve will, apparently, be re-filled to capacity—an increase of nearly 300m bl from today’s level. Tariffs are promised against Canada, China, Mexico and the EU, among others, to force them to either export less to the US or import more from the US. Sanctions against Iran, Russia and Venezuela might be toughened in the coming months. And this could be just the start. Ultimately, for all the sound and fury of Trump’s initiatives

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