The outlook for the global crude markets remains contested
OPEC+ must wait on contested demand outlook
Whether OPEC+ starts to unwind its oil production cuts from June will depend on heavily debated unfolding supply-demand balances
The outlook for the global crude markets remains contested, as evidenced by the widely divergent predictions for demand growth put forward by the IEA and OPEC already this year. Much will depend on the health of the Chinese economy and wider macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, across OECD economies. By contrast, there is more consensus on the outlook for the supply side of the equation. Forecasting is further complicated by the geopolitical divisions and sanctions that have fractured the global market and threaten to spill over into wider conflict. OPEC+ will not want to release the genie from the bottle for fear of not being able to put it back, but the ongoing voluntary cuts are cert
Also in this section
6 December 2024
The NOCs are both looking to take advantage of the petrochemicals boom, with the Saudi firm snapping up stakes in Asian JVs tied to offtake agreements and its Emirati counterpart striking big M&A deals
5 December 2024
While Donald Trump’s future sanctions policy is anything but certain, he may use a ‘carrot and stick’ approach to pursue an end to the war in Ukraine, although any changes will not happen overnight
5 December 2024
The latest sanctions on Gazprombank and other Russian banks may cause disruption, but willing buyers of Russian energy will find ways to continue payments
5 December 2024
The new edition of Outlook, our annual publication about the year ahead for energy, produced in association with White & Case, is available now
