Oil may not escape a recession
Those who believe a global recession has been avoided may be mistaken, with huge ramifications for the oil market in 2024
The theme for oil demand expectations at the beginning of 2024 is that the US and Chinese economies will prove their resilience and global crude consumption patterns will hit new records. It is a fragile and, arguably, misplaced assumption that could see oil prices slump and OPEC’s market management tested to its limits as supply tries not to overwhelm demand. Oil demand will increase by 1.1m b/d in 2024, according to the IEA. This is 130,000b/d above the agency’s previous estimate as it now assumes a better economic outlook for the US and a soft landing. OPEC echoes this bullishness, with its December oil market report highlighting an increase of 2.2m b/d, which is the same as its November
Also in this section
24 October 2024
Producers in the region see significant gains to be made by boosting output using the infrastructure already in place
23 October 2024
Markets have seen no material disruption from the war so far, but as the fighting goes on it is a matter of when, not if
23 October 2024
Majors in the region are pushing boundaries and could see significant upside, but longer-term risks remain
22 October 2024
Angola is unlikely to meet the official timeline for an IPO of state-owned oil giant Sonangol in 2026