Letter from London: OPEC+ is from Mars, markets are from Venus

The move by OPEC+’s inner circle to extend voluntary production cuts once again demonstrates that the oil market continually misunderstands the group

Assumption is the mother of all mistakes. Oil watchers have repeatedly been wrong-footed in their belief that the subset of OPEC+ producers that have been voluntarily keeping additional barrels off the market would bring them back at the expiry date of the cuts. The recent move by eight members of OPEC+ to delay the return of 180,000b/d in December by one month may be small and symbolic, but the message should be loud and clear: it is demand and supply, not policy set months ago, that determines what the group does next.   OPEC+ is boxed into a corner, said the commentators. Watch out for another market share war, went the fear-mongering after a clickbait news report. OPEC+ has to bring back