Letter from India: Oil’s new nerve centre

The IEA estimates India will be the largest driver of global oil demand growth by 2030, but it may have still undersold the story

Eyebrows were raised when the IEA said in February that India would overtake China as the top oil importer by the end of the decade. The argument was twofold. First, India’s urbanisation, economic expansion and population growth would see its appetite for oil continue to accelerate and fundamentally alter commodity flows and the energy map. Second, China’s economy would become less energy intensive and would look to wean itself off its hydrocarbon dependence under the guise of the transition push. Both arguments are convincing, and the truth is they simply do not go far enough with regards to the world’s now most-populous nation. India is on track to post an increase in demand of almost 1.2m