Iran and Libya supply fortunes highlight market risks
The impact from Libya’s lost barrels versus the threats to Iranian supply highlight the type of buffer in the oil market and the demand implications
An Israeli attack on Iranian export facilities could mean the loss of around 1.5m bl of medium and heavy sour crude currently going mainly to China. These barrels will be hard to replace compared with Libyan oil, as global light sweet supplies remain abundant. OPEC+ could make up the loss but is unlikely to do so, as the group is interested in supporting prices. China’s inability to easily replace discounted Iranian barrels could also jeopardise its economic recovery. The oil market has demonstrated resilience this year, despite several supply disruptions. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), an average of 1.1m b/d of production was offline in the first eight months
Also in this section
17 January 2025
Supply glut or supply deficit are both plausible outlooks, with tariffs and sanctions among the key risks that could swing the pendulum
17 January 2025
European Commission is on its way to meeting clean energy goals, but energy security concerns and higher costs may give it second thoughts
17 January 2025
The CEO of QatarEnergy has highlighted the potential impact a new EU directive could have on energy exports to the continent
16 January 2025
The government’s resource nationalism is aggravating the NOC’s debt position and could yet worsen if also tasked with the decarbonisation shift
