Iran and Libya supply fortunes highlight market risks
The impact from Libya’s lost barrels versus the threats to Iranian supply highlight the type of buffer in the oil market and the demand implications
An Israeli attack on Iranian export facilities could mean the loss of around 1.5m bl of medium and heavy sour crude currently going mainly to China. These barrels will be hard to replace compared with Libyan oil, as global light sweet supplies remain abundant. OPEC+ could make up the loss but is unlikely to do so, as the group is interested in supporting prices. China’s inability to easily replace discounted Iranian barrels could also jeopardise its economic recovery. The oil market has demonstrated resilience this year, despite several supply disruptions. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), an average of 1.1m b/d of production was offline in the first eight months
Also in this section
10 March 2026
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
10 March 2026
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
10 March 2026
Eni’s director for global gas and LNG portfolio, Cristian Signoretto, discusses how demand will respond to rising LNG supply, and how the company is expanding its own gas and LNG operations through disciplined, capital-efficient investments
9 March 2026
Petroleum Economist analysis sees increases in output from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan among others before region’s murky descent
