IEA and OPEC diverge on oil outlook

There is a gulf between the two bodies when it comes to their medium-term forecasts

The IEA and OPEC have each published medium-term oil market outlooks in the past few months. The IEA’s goes to 2028, but OPEC’s is braver in forecasting the market to 2045. There are big differences in the views of the two bodies to 2028, which is remarkable considering it is only a five-year period. However, given their different perspectives on the pace of the energy transition, it is perhaps less surprising. There are big differences in terms of the outlooks for non-OPEC supply. The OPEC Secretariat is much more bullish, seeing supply increasing by 6.98m b/d from 2022 to 2028, compared with the IEA’s much smaller growth of 3.96m b/d. Looking at the data on a country-by-country basis, the