Tight oil's surge poses a familiar dilemma for Opec
The rebalancing effort is on shaky ground. To keep cutting is a problem but to stop might be just as bad
American tight oil growth has surprised Opec again. The group's own forecasts for non-Opec supply have been well short of the reality. When Opec's secretariat publishes its market report next week expect another upgrade. But a change of policy is unlikely. Each option is fraught. The latest forecast, from February, predicted non-Opec supply would rise by 1.4m barrels a day in 2018. It was wishful thinking. The Energy Information Administration says US supply on its own will rise by that much, to say nothing of Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and others. In Houston for CERAWeek, the International Energy Agency's chief Fatih Birol said non-Opec would meet most of the world's extra demand needs over
Also in this section
24 January 2025
Domestic companies in Nigeria and other African jurisdictions are buying assets from existing majors they view as more likely to deliver production upside under their stewardship
23 January 2025
The end of transit, though widely anticipated, leaves Europe paying a third more for gas than a year ago and greatly exposed to supply shocks
23 January 2025
The country’s government and E&P companies are leaving no stone unturned in their quest to increase domestic crude output as BP–ONGC tie-up leads the way
22 January 2025
The return of Donald Trump gives further evidence of ‘big oil’ as an investable asset, with the only question being whether anyone is really surprised
