False dawn for oil
EVs, fuel-economy standards and perceptions of supply abundance are not about to end oil-market volatility
Oil industry leaders, investors and government officials contemplating medium-term (say five-year-forecast) oil prices should be wary of the words "new normal". Consensus sees shale and electric vehicles (EVs) indefinitely penning crude oil prices in the $40-$60 range that has held since early 2015, with the exception of a single sharp decline below $30 in early 2016. We contend that the oil market remains firmly in a "boom-bust" era, characterised by large structural imbalances, and the absence of an effective swing producer, with no end in sight. Oil's recent relatively tight range is no more a new normal than the prior "new normal" interlude around $100 was from 2010-13. Medium term, expe

Also in this section
6 February 2025
Policy initiatives will take time to reverse declining output, and restoring investor confidence is far from certain
6 February 2025
This premier event is poised to address the evolving technology and investment demands of North America’s thriving chemical and pharmaceutical sectors
5 February 2025
Growing appetite for LNG reinvigorates discussions between China and Myanmar, but civil war may prevent talk becoming action
5 February 2025
With new capacity, buyers must navigate sanctioned Russian crude, a return to traditional OPEC barrels and diversity of supply