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Qatar’s Golden Pass dilemma
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Letter from the US: The oil market abyss
The overlooked oil supply issue is that even after the Strait of Hormuz opens, barrels won’t readily return
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Hormuz crisis delivers tailwinds for US LNG
Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
Trump’s bid to reshape the global energy order
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
Energy dominance as diplomatic leverage
Energy sanctions are becoming an increasingly prominent tool of US foreign policy, with the country’s growth in oil and gas production allowing it to impose pressure on rivals without jeopardising its own energy security or that of its allies, argues Matthew McManus, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics
Trump’s gasoline price pledge paradox
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Letter from Asia: The nuanced India-Russia oil picture
The South Asian consumer’s next move could tighten the Middle East oil market overnight
Opec Saudi Arabia Russia Tight oil US Shale
Derek Brower
Vienna
1 December 2017
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Opec and non-Opec agree a rollover, with caveats

Cuts extended to end-2018, but with a built-in escape hatch—and an implicit threat to other producers

Saudi Arabia got what it came for in Vienna on 30 November—a nine-month extension to the cuts that would otherwise have expired in Q2 2018. It forced Libya and Nigeria to accept a cap on output. The revised deal will start from 1 January 2018 and remains a total removal of 1.8m b/d of supply from Opec and non-Opec. It secures Moscow's cooperation again, dispelling for another few months the doubts that had surfaced about Russia's commitment. "Supply is going to be fully adhered to," said Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih in the press conference after the meeting. "We won't expect the surprises, as we saw in 2017." Asked if the kingdom would be prepared to cut more deeply in 2018 to speed th

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