Can oil's rally last?
Physical tightness and geopolitics suggest so. But price threats are lurking
Everything looks bullish right now. Physical markets are tight. Demand is stronger than expected—Gulf Opec producers had thought Q4 would be much weaker. OECD stocks continue to fall. Oil is being drained from floating and onshore storage. The excess inventory is now mainly in the US, from which exports are soaring. The futures curve, in backwardation over the next six months, reflects the underlying shift in the fundamentals. The market seems to expect Opec to extend its cuts beyond the end of Q1 until end-2018. Geopolitics is the bull-shaped figurine on top of the cake. Some supply interruptions have already occurred: exports from northern Iraq have been cut several times in recent weeks a
Also in this section
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
1 April 2026
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
31 March 2026
Disappointing results in its bidding round are a reality check for Libya, and global exploration generally
