Hydrocarbon Processing Refining Databook 2025: Europe, Russia & CIS

EU net-zero polices have shifted refining investment among member states, while across the region countries and companies continue to adjust to changes in trade flows caused by the war in Ukraine

Western Europe has enacted several different policies focusing on net-zero ambitions that have resulted in a negative effect on future transport fuels demand. From 2022–23, the region’s refiners saw increased margins due to a rise in throughputs as Western Europe shifted away from refined product imports from Russia—a direct effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.   However, the region’s refining margins have declined over the past year, shifting the focus from increased fuels production to talks of widespread capacity closures, with six European refineries having shut operations since 2020. For example, the IEA forecast that 1–1.5m b/d of European refining capacity could close by 2030.