Additional US refinery closures are unlikely over the near-term
Worst is over for US refining
Wave of recent refinery closures and competitive edge make consolidation increasingly less likely
The US oil refining industry has lost almost 900,000bl/d of capacity since hitting an all-time high of 19mn bl/d in the second quarter of 2020 (see Fig. 1). But, while the global competition will continue to intensify, the US might have borne its greatest pain. China, India and some Middle Eastern countries continue to bring on millions of barrels of new refining capacity, with almost another 5mn bl/d expected by the end of 2025. These new mega-refineries tend to be integrated with petrochemical plants to make them even more competitive. And global oil consumption, already retarded by the Covid-19 pandemic, is increasingly at risk—especially in advanced economies—due to increasing efforts to
Also in this section
9 January 2026
OPEC+ remains on track as output falls, with only Gabon failing to hit its output targets in December, although Kazakhstan’s compliance was involuntary
9 January 2026
The Latin American producer’s crude prospects rely on a multi-pronged approach where even the relatively easy wins will take considerable time, effort and cost
9 January 2026
While many forecasters are reasserting the importance of oil and gas, petrostates should be under no illusion things are changing, and faster than they might think
8 January 2026
Indonesia and Malaysia are at the dawn of breathtaking digital capabilities. Their energy infrastructure must keep up with their ambitions
