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Energy dominance as diplomatic leverage
Energy sanctions are becoming an increasingly prominent tool of US foreign policy, with the country’s growth in oil and gas production allowing it to impose pressure on rivals without jeopardising its own energy security or that of its allies, argues Matthew McManus, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics
Explainer: Fujairah on high alert
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
EU sanctions push stalls ahead of fourth anniversary of Russian invasion
As Europe marks the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, EU efforts to tighten sanctions on Moscow have stalled
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
Europe’s rising energy security challenge
Across Europe, countries have grappled with balancing ambitious energy transition plans with realities about security of supply
Venezuela’s true oil potential
The Latin American producer’s crude prospects rely on a multi-pronged approach where even the relatively easy wins will take considerable time, effort and cost
Outlook 2006: The North Sea’s next chapter – From backbone to blueprint
The next five years will be critical for the North Sea, and it will be policy not geology that will decide the basin’s future
Outlook 2026: How critical mineral partnerships are shaping ASEAN’s energy transition
The global race for critical minerals has become a defining feature of energy geopolitics, presenting the ASEAN region with both opportunity and risk
Vehicles stuck in a heavy traffic jam on Delhi-Gurugram expressway
Politics
Neil Atkinson
14 August 2023
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Reality bites for global climate ambitions

Real-world trends for rising oil use in the developing world cast increasing doubt on lofty emissions goals

The IEA published a five-year oil market outlook in mid-June. This is always a brave exercise, and it is even more so in the post-pandemic world and following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In Oil 2023: Analysis and Forecast to 2028, the agency has planted its flag firmly in the peak oil demand camp and rebutted a theme published in many previous editions that pointed out the dangers of insufficient investment in the upstream oil industry. As far as the peak oil argument is concerned, the IEA continues to show growth in demand from 99.8m b/d in 2022 to 105.7m b/d in 2028 (the limit of the forecast), with the editor of the report saying the agency is “pretty confident” of a definitive peak by

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Energy dominance as diplomatic leverage
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