Winter warning signs for US gas market

Upward price pressures may benefit producers, but consumers will be hoping for a mild winter this year

Soaring gas prices in Europe and Asia have understandably taken all the headlines in recent weeks. But conditions are also ripe for a North American gas price hike, especially if there is a repeat of the Arctic cold snap that struck in the early months of 2021. “A cold winter has the potential to send US natural gas prices into the $15-20/mn Btu range for a prolonged period given the inelastic natural of supply and demand currently,” says Matthew Palmer, senior director, global gas, at information provider IHS Markit. The EIA forecasts that gas prices will most likely average $5.67/mn Btu between October and March, the highest winter price since 2007-08. In mid-October, Henry Hub had already