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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Mideast plans big spending on gas to meet demand
The region’s gas producers are investing heavily in the fuel in order to satisfy burgeoning demand resulting from economic growth and a shift to cleaner fuels
Qatar’s Golden Pass dilemma
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Letter from the US: The oil market abyss
The overlooked oil supply issue is that even after the Strait of Hormuz opens, barrels won’t readily return
Hormuz crisis delivers tailwinds for US LNG
Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
Trump’s bid to reshape the global energy order
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Energy dominance as diplomatic leverage
Energy sanctions are becoming an increasingly prominent tool of US foreign policy, with the country’s growth in oil and gas production allowing it to impose pressure on rivals without jeopardising its own energy security or that of its allies, argues Matthew McManus, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics
Demonstrators attend a protest against the assassination of the Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani in Tehran
Iraq Iran US
Gerald Butt
3 January 2020
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US lobs a grenade into a box of fireworks

Washington and Tehran may consider their next moves after drone kills top Iranian general, but restraint is the likeliest casualty

The long-rumbling US-Iran crisis has moved to a new and extremely febrile phase, after the US took out General Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s top commander in Iraq, in a targeted attack at Baghdad airport.  For months, tension has been high in the Mid-East Gulf—with attacks on shipping, on Saudi oil facilities and on other infrastructure. Iraq, where both the US and Iran have strong interests and strong allies, has been a particular focus in recent weeks. Against the background of a serious domestic political crisis, Iran-back militias attacked US facilities in the country, which appears to have sparked the fierce American response.  While the US and Iran had previously been careful to prevent mat

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